America and Russia Are Both Fighting Wars. Only One is in a Quagmire.
The latest round of fighting near the Strait of Hormuz, as American forces attempt to reopen it and Iran struggles to keep it closed, has mostly driven the largest conflict in Europe since World War II out of the headlines. On Friday though, sighs of relief echoed across the Kremlin, which had planned to dramatically downsize Russia’s annual World War II celebration for fear of a Ukrainian attack on Moscow during its most conspicuous ceremony. The short ceasefire and prisoner swap President Trump announced may not bring full peace, but it stops the bloodletting for a time.
Vladimir Putin's tacit admission that he cannot even secure Moscow's airspace without Trump's approval is the latest setback in his misbegotten attack on Ukraine. Many see Trump's campaign against Iran's nuclear program as a similar failure, but this view is mistaken. The two conflicts reveal important facts about the international balance of power. Russia is failing to defeat its much smaller next-door neighbor, and the United States is trying to manage the costs of compelling Iran to surrender its nuclear program. These are very different problems, and they show that Russia is falling behind.
There is no moral equivalence between America’s military and Russia’s child-stealing butchers, but at first glance, they seem to face the same tactical problem. Both countries opened their offensives with lightning strikes that did not topple their opposing government and then entered a longer operation. But that’s where the similarities end.
Russia’s retreat from the outskirts of Kyiv in April 2022 marked the beginning of a national catastrophe. The country has suffered about 1.3 million casualties over the past four years as Western aid and Ukrainian doggedness have largely stymied Putin’s designs. Regardless of where the line is drawn at the end of this war, Moscow will have wasted enormous resources for little gain. Putin clearly sees himself as the heir of Peter and Catherine the Great, but he has not even seized the site of Peter’s greatest victory, Poltava.
And it is not for lack of trying. Putin mobilized the economy for war—roughly one-tenth of the Russian economy is going into the war effort—indiscriminately attacked Ukrainian military and civilian targets, and has courted everyone from Xi Jinping to Kim Jong Un for extra soldiers and spare parts. Not only has he failed to subdue Ukraine, he cannot even keep it from striking deep into the Russian heartland. Russia is refining the least oil it has since December 2009, thanks to Ukrainian strikes, and Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, pointed out on Wednesday that “even [Russia’s] main parade already depends on us.”
Putin wishes he had Trump’s problems. In only a few weeks of shooting, the U.S. and Israeli militaries destroyed $270 billion worth of Iranian weapons and military infrastructure. Iran cannot reconstitute because the American blockade is costing the Islamic Republic over $400 million daily. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei died in the first minutes of the war, many of his top subordinates followed him to the grave in quick succession, and his successor is reportedly so gravely wounded that he cannot make public appearances.
The biggest advantage the new supreme leader now has is American self-restraint. Our military has mostly refrained from targeting Iran’s dual-use infrastructure that is legally fair-game during a conflict because U.S. policymakers want Iran to give up its nuclear program without causing unnecessary suffering for the Iranian people.
Oil prices are still high, and some commodities like jet fuel are becoming scarcer because Iran is keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed. But the American economy is better able to handle this problem than many others thanks to our abundant energy. In one part of Texas, the price for natural gas is negative.
The longer trend line for the United States is much more positive than it is for Russia. The Pentagon needs to replace and increase the stores of missiles expended in this conflict, but Operation Epic Fury inflicted enormous damage for very light losses. America’s allies in the region are cooperating with each other more closely than before the war—Israeli forces reportedly deployed to the Emirates during the conflict—and Iran is burning missiles and goodwill across the Gulf. The transatlantic rift widened over the Iran campaign, but U.S. troops may move to Eastern Europe due to the spat with Germany. This will not lighten the mood in the Kremlin. And as Europe’s military buildup proceeds, Russia’s options for threatening its Western neighbors will diminish.
Some hope that stalemates in Ukraine and in Iran will demonstrate war’s uselessness and make the world more peaceful. Others cheer for America’s humiliation and the destruction of its friends around the world. War is dangerous and unpredictable, and victory is not yet assured. But America’s enemies are not faring well.
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