Exclusive Details on Israel's Plan To Conquer Gaza City and End the War

Plus, Japan inches toward peace through strength

Aug 09, 2025

Competing endgames: Two months ago, our Andrew Tobin broke the news on Israel's controversial war plan: If Hamas didn't lay down its arms, he wrote from Tel Aviv, Israel would move to a new phase in the war, one in which it relocates civilians, lays siege to the rest of Gaza, and destroys the terrorist group. Hamas hasn't surrendered, and on Thursday, Israel's security cabinet approved a plan to enter that new phase.

It includes an Oct. 7 deadline for civilians in Gaza City to evacuate southward to tent camps. At that point, Israel will lay siege to the city, which before the war was Hamas's de facto administrative capital in Northern Gaza. From there, the endgame is in doubt. Some former Israeli officials who are close to Benjamin Netanyahu's government believe Israel will avoid taking full control of Gaza, as Netanyahu said he intended to do ahead of the security cabinet meeting. Others say the government is committed to that goal.

The former option would see Israel secure a perimeter outside of the tent camps without occupying them. From that perimeter, retired Israeli brigadier general Amir Avivi said, the IDF would engage in a "war of attrition" against Hamas based on the following message: "Our troops are safe, our towns are safe … You will be stuck forever in tents along the beach." A full occupation would see Israel enter the camps and force Hamas to "choose between fighting to the death, surrendering, or starving," said Erez Winner, a retired Israeli brigadier general.

"If we do it the right way, you will see Hamas in a very short period of time come back to the table and ask for some sort of deal," Winner said. "I hope Israel won’t accept the deal and will continue until the decisive victory that Netanyahu has been talking about for a long time."

Breaking taboos: Eighty years ago to the day, the most destructive war in human history drew rapidly to a close when a U.S. atomic bomb flattened Nagasaki. Since then, Japan has steered clear of nuclear weaponry, instead embracing pacifism. That's starting to change.

A new party, Sanseito (translated in English as "Japanese first"), picked up 13 seats in Japan's recent upper house elections. As its name indicates, it's a populist upstart that is "hostile to China," writes the Hudson Institute's Mike Watson, "and not afraid to break taboos—including the ultimate one in Japan." One candidate who won a seat called nuclear armament an effective measure to "ensure safety," while the party's leader, Sohei Kamiya, said the country should not "shy away from a discussion" about possessing a nuke.

For Watson, though there's plenty of darkness in Sanseito, its embrace of peace through strength is a good thing. As China and Russia once again threaten regional peace, he writes, "Japan's friends should cheer for the country to choose new leaders who can bring out the best that the island nation has to offer. For Americans, the great threat is not Japanese strength, but weakness."

Hot for terrorist: The American Federation of Teachers represents some 1.7 million members. Last week, it sent them a letter asking for donations to its "partner organization," American Near East Refugee Aid (ANERA). The nonprofit, our Alana Goodman reports, "is one of the largest nonprofits operating in the West Bank in Gaza. It's also worked with Hamas-run agencies like the Ministry of Social Development, which is led by Hamas leader and U.S.-designated terrorist Ghazi Hamad, prompting criticism from human rights watchdogs."

In January, the human rights watchdog group NGO Monitor released a report detailing connections between ANERA and Hamas-linked organizations. It pointed to a U.N. description of a 2023 building project in Gaza that noted ANERA worked "in coordination with" the social development ministry, which Hamas appointed Hamad to run in 2019. In the wake of Oct. 7, he vowed to launch "a second, a third, a fourth" attack.

"AFT's fundraising for ANERA is fueling criticism that teachers' unions have become a hub of anti-Israel activism," writes Goodman. "Last month, the National Education Association, the nation's largest teachers' union, voted to boycott the Anti-Defamation League over the Jewish rights group's stance against anti-Semitism."

In other news:

Days after revoking $339 million in federal funding from the University of California, Los Angeles, the Trump administration is reportedly demanding a $1 billion settlement from the school to put an end to the fight.
Oct. 7 survivors and victims' families filed a lawsuit against UNRWA, accusing the agency of funding and supporting Hamas and Hezbollah.
In Harvard's eyes, two-time gubernatorial loser Stacey Abrams is a "political mastermind." That's according to a course description for an upcoming history seminar taught by a tenure-track African-American history professor at the Ivy League school.

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